Expert system for the origins of the man-caused catastrophes identification

Nowadays the human society is permanently running the risk of different external events, terrorists’ actions (chemical, nuclear and biology terrorism) and nature disasters; therefore it is necessary to develop the methods of such events origins investigation.

With this aim SSL developed the Expert system to clarify such events.

Analyzing the situations when initiating event and cause are unknown and only symptoms of lesion are clear, it is impossible to search the affecting agent (substance, irradiation, pathogenic organism) without of restriction of the searching area. E.g. searching a chemical substance that causes any symptom, it is necessary even in the beginning to determine the class of chemical compound which the danger agent relates to.

E.g. when the unusual meteorology events occur (colored or smelled precipitations that usually cause nervous response of population) their origin may have no concern with the industry pollutions. It is known that yellow or green color of rain or snow sometimes was caused by the plants pollen or dust, the smell was caused by the forest fire smoke.

Analyzing the visual signs the Expert system recognizes the origins of man-caused catastrophe or unusual meteorology events. The Expert system includes so-called “knowledge database” – large number of scenarios (several hundred) with known “symptoms” and “diagnoses”.

The Expert system consecutively demonstrates to the user the lists of the different signs. The user informs the system if the given sign belongs to the situation in question or no. The database comprises several thousand different signs.

Analyzing the user’s information the system determines the more probable origin of the investigated situation.

The Expert system also may be used in supporting the decisions made during investigation and training of the personnel taking part in such investigations.